Looking at European energy storage from the German household storage market: maintaining cautious optimism
According to EESA's forecast, the overall household savings scale in Europe in 2023 will be approximately 9.2GWh, and the German household savings market accounts for 47% of Europe's total scale, which has strong guiding significance. The cumulative installed capacity of energy storage in Germany will reach 7.4GW/11.5GWh in 2023, an increase of 3.5GW/5.3GWh from the end of 2022. The growth rate gradually slowed down in the second half of the year, from more than 200% in the middle of the year to -23% in December. In January 2024, Germany added 35.7MWh of large-scale storage capacity, 18.1MWh of industrial and commercial capacity, and 333.0MWh of household storage capacity; a total of 386.8MWh was added in the month, -10% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate is in a continuous downward trend, and has been negative for three consecutive months, confirming our previous cautious predictions for European energy storage.

European electricity prices generally fall, and the impact of natural gas decreases

According to TRADINGECONOMICS, the electricity prices of Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, the top three energy storage installed countries in Europe, are 68.54/95.75/61.00 euros/MWh respectively. Although there are certain price fluctuations on a monthly basis, they are at a lower level than the peak during the energy crisis in 2022. Low shock. The natural gas price index quoted $1.6822/MMBtu last Friday and will continue to trend downward after the year. In the short term, it will be difficult for European electricity prices to rise significantly.

Energy storage subsidy policy maintains bottom line for household storage demand in Europe

Fluctuations in European electricity prices determine the upper limit of energy storage demand, while the subsidy intensity and stability of European policies maintain the lower limit of energy storage demand. Taking Italy as an example, from February to April 2023, the government suspended the Superbonus subsidy plan due to deficit pressure, and reduced the Superbonus subsidy intensity in 2024 and 2025 after restarting, causing construction at thousands of construction sites to come to a standstill. In the end, the government had to extend the Superbonus scheme to a limited extent. It can be seen that the current European energy storage market demand is relatively fragile and highly dependent on policies. Current policy disturbances will become the core contradiction of European energy storage demand.